la nina collapse

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A “La Niña collapse” refers to the breakdown or rapid weakening of a La Niña phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), when the cool sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific dissipate and the coupled ocean-atmosphere pattern returns to neutral or shifts toward El Niño. La Niña is an important climate mode that historically brings cooler, wetter conditions to the Pacific Northwest and drier winters to Southern California and the U.S. Southwest, so its collapse can alter seasonal forecasts for precipitation, temperature, drought risk, wildfire outlooks and water management. Scientists monitor indicators such as sea surface temperatures, subsurface heat content, trade winds, and atmospheric convection; mechanisms linked to collapse include westerly wind bursts and downwelling Kelvin waves that transport warm water eastward. For people in California, a La Niña collapse can mean a higher chance of wetter winter storms if conditions evolve toward El Niño or simply different timing and intensity of rainfall; forecasters from agencies like NOAA and regional weather services release regular ENSO updates to track such transitions.

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